QUICK NEWS, 9-13: PEAK COAL; PROP 23 IS OILY – STUDY; TIDAL POWER MAY BE BEST; WYOMING DEM ACCUSES CHINA WIND

PEAK COAL
Mining the Truth on Coal Supplies; A view that the world’s leading electricity fuel—and major contributor to climate change—is running out
Mason Inman, September 8, 2010 (National Geographic)

"…A new study seeks to shake up the assumption that use of coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel, is bound to continue its inexorable rise. In fact, the study’s authors predict that world coal production may reach its peak as early as next year, and then begin a permanent decline.

"[A global coal production forecast with multi-Hubbert cycle analysis], led by Tad Patzek, chairman of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin…predicts that by mid-century, the world's coal mining will supply only half as much energy as today."

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"The idea that the world will face "peak coal" as soon as 2011 flies in the face of most earlier estimates and analysis…[The World Coal Institute] ‘the use of coal will rise 60 percent over the next 20 years…[and last] for at least 119 years.’ And the U.S. Energy Information Administration…projects that coal consumption for electricity will grow more than 50 percent by 2035 unless policies are put in place to stop the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.

"…[But the Patzek study found] the world will finish off the coal that is easy to reach and high-quality…What remains will often be of lower quality, and progressively harder to [mine and deliver]…The study's prediction [of] a peak in the energy produced by global coal production—[is an estimate but if accurate]…could have a vast impact on the world economy…Coal-fired power plants supply 40 percent of the world's electricity, and energy for two-thirds of the world's steel production…Many countries are counting on coal to continue powering their economies for decades to come…"

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"…[The Patzek study] argues that the reserves estimates of the United States and other countries overstate how much coal is actually practical to mine and use…[It] notes that estimates of Illinois’ proven reserves are still high—second only to Montana in the United States—even though coal production has declined to a little more than half of what was produced there 20 years ago…[because] Illinois coal is high in sulfur…[and] utilities have shifted to buying lower-sulfur coal from the Powder River Basin of Wyoming and Montana, despite its lower heat content, as a way to meet federal regulations for control of acid rain….

"…[A]nalyses that have taken the shift to lower-quality coal into account have concluded that reserves are robust…[A] 2007…National Academy of Sciences (NAS) [study]...concluded there was sufficient coal to meet the nation’s needs at current rates of consumption for more than 100 years…However, the NAS admitted that its 2007 estimates of coal reserves were based upon methods and data that had not been reviewed or revised since the early 1970s…Patzek's study uses a version of a method developed by the legendary father of “peak oil” theory, Marion King Hubbert, to analyze coal reserves. Hubbert, at the time a Shell Oil petroleum geologist, used prior production history to correctly predict 15 years in advance that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970s…Hubbert's method, a controversial one, assumes that production follows a bell-shaped curve over time…When there are many different oil wells or coal mines operating independently, the sum of all their production tends to follow such a bell curve over time…Patzek's study is not the only one to conclude that the reserve estimates are often too high…[It] concludes with…a plea for using less energy and more efficient electricity generation…"


PROP 23 IS OILY - STUDY
Suspending California climate change law will hurt green jobs, study claims
Rick Daysog, September 10, 2010 (Sacramento Bee)

"Suspending California's landmark climate change law would result in the loss of millions of dollars in state revenue and hurt the state's growing clean-tech industry, [California at the Crossroads: Proposition 23, AB 32, and climate change] says.

"The Center for Law, Energy & the Environment at the University of California, Berkeley Law School also said the rollback initiative, Proposition 23, would benefit oil and power companies while increasing regulatory burdens to real estate developers and auto makers…"

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"California's climate change law, signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006, attempts to reduce carbon emissions statewide to 1990 levels by the year 2020…The rollback measure seeks to suspend the law until the statewide unemployment rate drops to 5.5 percent or below for four quarters in a row.

"…[The report author] said Proposition 23 would force the state to suspend a $63 million fee it plans to charge oil companies, utilities and other energy companies…[and] would require the state to set aside a cap-and-trade program that places limits on greenhouse gas emissions from oil refiners, utilities and other energy companies…[and sells] carbon allowances to the state's largest polluters, which could then use those allowances to offset their emissions or sell them on a secondary market…[R]evenues from [the] system have ranged from $220 million to $550 million…"

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"Part of AB 32 requires utilities to purchase about a third of their energy supply from renewable sources…[so 23] would result in the loss of clean jobs and limit investments in new technologies, the report said…Proposition 23 will [also] create inequities between industries regulated by different climate change laws…Oil companies and utilities would be relieved of their burdens under AB 32 while real estate developers and car makers governed by a separate set of climate change laws could see increased pressures from regulators, the report said…

"Anita Mangels, spokeswoman for the Yes on 23 committee, disputed the report. She said Proposition 23 would have a positive impact on state revenue and California's economy…She cited a [since discredited] July study by the state Legislative Analyst's Office…[foreseeing potential increased revenues] from greater economic activity if AB 32 was delayed."


TIDAL POWER MAY BE BEST
Why Tidal Power is Europe's Best Near-Term Ocean Energy Technology
Peter Ausmus, September 8, 2010 (Matter Network via Reuters)

"…[T]he world's largest tidal turbine…1 MW…will be installed off the coast of Scotland near Orkney…Scotland is the hot spot for tidal power in all of northern Europe, with the Pentland Firth often described as the "Saudi Arabia of tidal power." The U.K. and Ireland also feature among the best tidal sites in the world, because they are relatively close to people…[In] the U.S…95% of the nation's tidal resources [are] off the coast of remote Alaska…

"Tidal stream turbines…[look] like wind turbines placed underwater. Tidal projects comprise over 90 percent of today's marine kinetic capacity totals, but the vast majority of this installed capacity relies upon first generation "barrage" systems still relying upon storage dams… [A] 2009 [Pike Research] forecast shows…[tidal systems dominating] the near-term market for ocean energy technologies."

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"Tides result from the gravitational forces of the moon and sun interacting with oceans. (Because of its proximity to the earth, the moon actually exerts about twice as much influence on tidal patterns as the sun.) The ever-changing relationship between the moon, sun, and earth causes the ocean to rise and fall at regular ["semi-diurnal"] intervals…

"These tidal streams become concentrated pools of kinetic energy ideal for power generation, when passing through narrow channels, an inlet into a bay or other passages between two land masses. While the tidal resource is much less abundant than wave energy resources, its power density is greater. Most waves move at the pace of approximately one meter per second; tides typically move at least twice that speed at two meters per second. A doubling of the speed of tidal streams will result in eight times the amount of potential energy since power density is determined by the cube of water speed."

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"The Electric Power Research Institute has projected that a 100 MW tidal stream turbine project could generate power at a [market-competitive] cost of 6 to 9 cents per kilowatt hour…Tidal resources have the highest power density of any of the marine renewable technologies, hence the lowest cost estimates…[They] can be accurately predicted literally years in advance…

"…Tidal devices are typically sited below the ocean surface…can't be seen…[or] heard…[and will] not interfere with shipping or other maritime uses…While physics is on the side of tidal streams…experts estimate the wave resource to be two to three times the size of the world's tidal stream resource..."


WYOMING DEM ACCUSES CHINA WIND
Wyo.'s Wendt blasts China green energy subsidies
Bob Moen, September 10, 2010 (AP via Bloomberg BusinessWeek)

"…In a speech…at the state AFL-CIO convention in Cheyenne, [Democratic U.S. House candidate David Wendt] is backing a petition by the United Steelworkers union asking the Obama administration to investigate possible unfair trading practices by China [that he says undercut the American clean power industry].

"The Steelworkers contend that China's central and provincial governments are giving Chinese companies unfair advantages over American firms through the use of government subsidies that are prohibited under global trade rules."

These prices are hard to beat, but that's what China's government intends. (click to enlarge)

"Wendt says the subsidies provide Chinese manufacturers of wind turbines, solar panels and other clean energy equipment with price advantages that could drive U.S. companies out of business…

"…[Wendt HAS] worked closely with the Chinese [large and growing manufacturing industry] for some 15 years on various energy related matters…While bringing down the cost of green energy is necessary to boosting clean energy production and use, Wendt said [it should be done fairly]…The Chinese subsidies will only skew the green power market and force competitors out of business…"

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"Under U.S. law, the Obama administration will have 45 days to decide whether to accept the petition and launch an investigation that could lead to cases being filed against China before the Geneva-based World Trade Organization.

"Wendt supports development of clean energy initiatives, including technology to find cleaner ways of burning coal. Wyoming is the nation's leading coal producer…[He] is seeking to unseat Republican Rep. Cynthia Lummis in November's general election…"